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Circular 304. Издание 1

Документ обновлён на дату:01.01.2004

Outlook for Air Transport to the Year 2015

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iii Table of Contents Page Chapter 1. Summary............................................................ 1 Chapter 2. Air Transport Trends and Challenges..................................... 5 Economic development and airline traffic patterns.................................... 5 Trends in scheduled passenger, freight and mail traffic................................. 5 International and domestic traffic............................................ 7 Regional distribution of scheduled international traffic............................. 7 Passenger traffic on major intercontinental route groups............................ 7 Trends in non-scheduled passenger traffic.......................................... 8 Aircraft movements........................................................... 9 Fleet composition and productivity............................................... 11 Relationship between productivity, prices and financial performance....................... 13 Safety and quality of service.................................................... 15 Airport and airspace congestion.................................................. 16 Environmental protection...................................................... 16 Financial resources........................................................... 17 Economic regulation.......................................................... 18 Industry structure............................................................ 19 Product distribution...................................................... 20 Alliances and airline cooperation............................................. 20 Airline business models................................................... 20 Privatization, national consolidation and transnational ownership..................... 21 Chapter 3. World Economic Environment........................................... 22 Historical trends............................................................. 22 Outlook................................................................... 22 Chapter 4. Airline Financial Trends................................................ 24 Operating revenues, expenses and results........................................... 24 Global trends........................................................... 24 Yields and unit costs...................................................... 28 Operating revenues and expenses by category and region........................... 28 Outlook................................................................... 30 Chapter 5. Forecasts of Airline Traffic to the Year 2015................................ 33 Forecasting methodology....................................................... 33 Main assumptions and econometric models......................................... 33 Global passenger forecasts...................................................... 34 Regional passenger forecasts.................................................... 36 Passenger forecasts for intercontinental route groups.................................. 36 Global freight forecasts........................................................ 37 Regional freight forecasts...................................................... 38 Summary of air traffic forecasts by other organizations................................. 41

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