Circular 76. North Atlantic Traffic Forecasts (March 1966)

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Circular 76

North Atlantic Traffic Forecasts (March 1966)

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IRCULAR NORTH ATLANTIC TRAFFIC FORECASTS March 1966 Prepared by the Secretariat and published by authority of the Council for the information of Contracting States I INTERNATSUNAL CIVIL AVIATION ORGANIZATION - - - MONTREAL m CANADA

fiblished itt sepnrde English, French and Spanish editians by the fnternotiond CfdZ Auicrtiatl Organization. At correspondence, ezcept otdets and subscriptions, should be cnldtwed to the Seerdary General of ICAO, International Aviation Building, 1080 University Street, Montreal 3 Quebec, Canada. Orders for this publication should be sent to one of the foliowing addresses, together with the appropriate remittance by bank draft or post office noney order in U.S. doltars or the currency of thc country in which the order is placed or in a freely convertible currency Regional Oflielea Sales Agencies France ReprCsentant de tlOACI, Bureau Europe, his, villa 6rnile-ererat, Neuilly- sur-Seine Seine. Peru Representante de la OACI, Oficina Sudarnerica, Apartado 4127, Lima. Senegal Reprksentant de I'OAGI, E ureau Afrique, Boite postale 2356, Dakar. Thailand JCAO Representative, Far East and Pacific Ofhe, P.O. Box 614, Bangkok. United Arab Republic ICAO Represen- tative, Middle East and Eastern African OfEce, 16 Hassan Sabri, Zamalek, Cairo. Argentina Editorial Sudamericana S.A., CaDe Alsina 500, Buenos Aires. Australia Robertson and Mullens, f 07 Eli- zabeth Street, Melbourne, C. 1. Canada Department of Pubiic Printing and Stationery, Ottawa Ontario. India Oxford Book Statioaery Co., Scindia House, New Dew m 17 Psuk Street, Calcutta. Mexico Editorial Hermes S.A., Ignacio .. Mariscal 41, Mbxico 4, D.F. New Zealand Government Printer, Cavern- ment Printing CHlce, 20 Molesworth Street, Wellington. United Kingdom Her Majesty's Stationery Office, P.O. Box 569, London, S.E. 1. International Civil Aviation Organization Attention Distribution Officer, International Aviation Building, 1080 Uniivexsity Street, Montreal 3 Quebec, Canada. Do you receive the lCAO BULLETIN The lCAb Bulletin contains a concise account of the acfivities of the Organization us we as articles of interest to the uero- nooticut world. The Bulletin will also keep yw up to dufe on the lufes lCAO publications, their contents, amendmenfs, supplernenfr, corri- genda, and prices. Available in three separate editions English, French and Spanish. Annuol subscription U.S. 2.00.

TABLE OF CONTENTS Page FOREWORD ........................... 1 ........................... I . PASSENGER TRAFFIC 3 General trend in North Atlantic air passenger traffic ........ 3 Future of passenger fares ...................... 4 Pus sible introduction of new large aircraft ............. 6 Introduction of supersonic aircraft in 1972 and 1974 ........ 8 Charter flights and non- XATA airline operations ........... 9 Seasonal variations on the North Atlantic route ........... 9 Total passenger trafric forecasts .................. 12 Variation from the forecasts ..................... 12 IIX . CARGO TRAFFIC .............................. 15 Current trends ............................ 15 Load factors ............................. 15 Forecasts ............................... 17 AUR MAIL TRAFFIC. ............................ 19 ............................ Present trends. 19 Forecasts ............................... 19 APPENDIX f . General assumptions underlying the forecasts .......... 21 APPENDIX I1 . Notes on the concepts of elasticity of demand as used in this study ....................... 23 STATISTICAL TABLES Table I . Table 2 . Table 3 . Table 4 . Table 5 . Table 6 . Table 7 . Table 8 . Seasonal Variations on the North Atlantic Route ....ma.. 10 Passenger Traffic Forecasts on the North Atlantic ....... 25 Changes in North Atlantic Traffic Forecasts .......... 26 North Atlantic Cargo Traffic. 1951 . 1975 ........... 27 North Atlantic Cargo Traffic on IATA Scheduled Flights. Monthly. 1961- 1965 ................ 28 Mail Traffic on North Atlantic ................. 30 Rates of Revenue and Cost on North Atlantic Route . . . . 3 1 North Atlantic Traffi on Scheduled Services by .................... Quarters 1951-1945 33

FOREWORD The Fifteenth Session of the Assembly requested the Council to prepare long- and medium-term forecasts of future trends and developments in civil aviation, including, where possible, regional as well as global data, and make these available to Contracting States Resolution A15-6. The object of such forecasts would be to aid the Council in carrying out its functions in the economic field and to provide Contracting States with information on which to base future pclicy decisions, It was decided that these forecasts should be prepared in the first instance on a regional basis and that the work should be co-ordinated with other econornic studies in order to minimize its cost. In due course inter- regional and global forecasts will be developed. The present study provides forecasts of traffic on the North Atlantic air route up to 1975. It was carried out in conjunction with a statistical study of air traffic on the route required each year for the Systems Planning of air navigation facilities, in consultation with the Federal Aviation Agency of the United States and the International Air Transport Association, whose published statistics form the main basis of the forecasts.

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